Market Update

General

Good afternoon

equity markets very strong today - I guess hoping for a decisive Biden-win, which would be followed by a mega-large spending budget? Or are markets betting on a surprise Trump-win? I have no idea - we will all know by tomorrow!! ( well, hopefully! )

Factory Orders as well as Durable Goods Orders in the US were up and bang in line.

Oil is very strong - Brent re-gained the 40$-level…basically making the huge loss late last week forgotten!

But there is also some uncertainty left, as gold is up and trading at 1906 in the moment

The US$ is weaker against the Euro - but much weaker against the A$. Australia´s Reserve Bank announced to join the club today, and will buy 100 bill A$ in government bonds…

Base metals are having a good day as well - so everybody is happy except of the bond-guys…US benchmark yield is approaching 0,9% - probably in anticipation of large spending programs after the election!

China wants to push the takeup of EV´s harder, which should increase demand for nickel and copper. Citi is expecting nickel to hit at least 16500$/t after the US-election.

Everybody enjoying a long lunch in Australia today, with the Melbourne Cup ( and a true, good old-styled long lunch with a few bottles of red ! ) in everybodies mind! Perfect timing 3 pm start, just late enough to make it NOT back to the trading desk for a market close at 4 pm! So not all that much happening today…

The biggest and also worst news have been Chinese newspaper articles, which suggest, that China will suspend imports of copper ore, wine and several other goods as a new step in the deteriorating, Austral/Chinese relationship! Let´s hope, that this won´t have an impact on Australia´s decision to allow investment in Sheffield´s mineral sand project!

Have a nice election night and fasten the seat belts!

WS

General - Oceana - Western Areas - Panoramic - Marvel Gold

Good afternoon

PMI´s in China and Europe have been pretty strong for October…it remains to be seen, how economies will fare this month, following some strong Covid-restrictions! PMI´s in the US also positive - especially for manufacturing and new orders!

The elections are certainly occupying everybodys mind…

from a slow start, European equity markets are very strong now -up by 1.5-2%. The US also stronger, but probably held back my the election. Base metals also a bit weaker in the morning - but are green now by late afternoon. And gold is finding some friends in Europe, as well as in US-hours, trading at 1895 US$ right now.

Most Australian borders internally are open again now, which should alleviate some labor shortages for miners in Western Australia.But tomorrow, Australia will be very slow because of Melbourne Cup Day - even though it will take place without any visitors and the usually celebrating! But with COVID not an issue in Australia at all - hopefully not only for now! - the day will be full of long lunches and many drinks, without any doubt!

Queensland had elections on Saturday - the existing Labour-Government has won the election, which should be rather good news for Genex, which has experienced strong support from it in the past - even though the last missing piece of the puzzle, the maintenenance costs of the transmission line, has not been fixed with them as yet.

Last week finished witha few bad Quarterlies…

Oceana - very weak Quarter from haile as well as Macreas - and that´s just about all gold production they have in the moment, with Didipio still on halt and NZ ex Macraes being completely revamped. I fear there is very little reason to look at them - I cannot see the stock outperform anytime soon, as there are no indications for Didipio getting back into production!

Western Areas- had a horrific Quarter from both existing mines, as a seismic event prvented them from normal production. This came as a total surprise to the market - in my opinion, they would have been required to report this earlier! They are in the middle of developing their new mine, which will have generally higher production costs than the existing ones…I can see why they bought the stake in Panoramic - without Savannah, WSA will go backwards soon! But I have to say, that the near-term outlook for them does not make a potential paper-bid for PAN any sexier!

Marvel Gold - raised 5,7 mill A$ at 6ct, which does not come as a big surprise. They have had limited founds to drive their exploration push in Mali,a nd while 5,7 mill$ is not anything fantastic, I understand that the placement went into some very good hands. I would think, that the company did not want too much dilution at the current level, either. The wet season in West Africa is over,and we shoudl see some very active drilling from Marvel - and in fact many others- over the next few month. Colid does not seem to be that much of an issue in most parts of Africa - at least for now! I did not take part in the placement, as I already have a large position!"

Panoramic - updated on development of the ventilation system, which is going extremely well! They had targeted 54 m of development in October, and managed 122m! There is a chance now, that this thing will be finished a month or even two earlier than planned - provided they don´t run into any problems. But for now, this is excellent news. the market has been a bit cautious , as the problems with the ventilation shaft have been a major drag on mining Savannah as planned.

Have a nice evening

WS

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General - Fortescue - Bellevue - Liontown

Good afternoon

a very volatile day today - looks like the bulls will win! Base metals were relatively strong early this morning, but fell away to trade all down by lunch time - but recovered since to being unchanged on average. Gold is down by a few $ to about 1870 US$ currently - the US$ is very strong and trades at a recenbt high of 1,165 currently against the Euro. The A$ has tried to break below 70ct against the US, but has recovered slightly now to 0,702.

The US economy seems to withstand the virus - certainly helped by previously unseen government spending. Labor market numbers slightly better than expected, and the GDP grew by 33% ( exp 32%) lst Quarter, helped by strong personal consumption + 40,7%. The number is also a little better than expected - but as you know, the government handed out cheques left right and center ahead of the election! Pending Home Sales were down.

Equity markets very similar to base metals - strong at the open, falling away soon - but taking a lead from the US and now it´s all green over Europe as well. The EZB strongly indicated, that it will do more - Germany giving an extra 10 bill Euro to pubs, restaurants, theaters etc….basically paying these type of businesses 70-75% of lost revenue.

Fortescue - incredible Quarterly - costs down ( cash cost 12.70$/t ) / production up to 44,3 millt / price received up ( 105,7$/t ) and perhaps even more important, the discountz for the FMG-quality is reducing . Net cash is 1.3 bill$ - that augurs well for yet another big dividend coming! If iron ore prices hold halfway ok - which most analysts are NOT expecting ), the stock is trading at probably 15% yield!! Mr. Won, who is a Malayisan Chinese, living in Sydney, will bunker more cash! He bought 93 mill shares in 2003 and has hold them until now - and probably forever. He invested 1.2 mill$ - he has received about 400 mill $ in Dividends since then, and his stake is worth about 1.5 bill A$! Good job, I would say! And good on him! Nice story on the side…

Liontown - placed 12.5 mill$ worth of shares yesterday, to enable completion of the feasibility study. Management indicated, that tehy see further scope to improve the NPV! And not least, they will have enough cash now to do some drilling at the Julimar look-alike near Perth! Well done…placement apparently was heavily oversubscribed. Liontown is slowly but surely developing into a major story. Their recent scoping study into going further downstream and produce battery-lithium as opposed to the usual concentrate, would require something like 1.1 bill A$ in capex - but delivering even better returns. Perhaps a story for some larger company like RIO or FMG to enter the space??

Bellevue - had reported numerous drill holes and the discovery of another lode during the Quarter already. They drilled 40.000m and spent 10.5 mill$ in the Quarter ( also on widening the decline etc ), but still sit on nearly 150 mill A$….I guess even if they plan to go this alone - which I very much doubt - they might not need much more equity. They continue to do an excellent job - but stock is not that cheap.

Have a nice evening!

WS

General - West African - Metro Mining - Dacian Gold

Good afternoon

equity markets react negatively today to new lockdown-measures and strong corona numbers - reaching a new high of 15.000 for example in Germany. The DAX was down by over 5% during the day,a nd seems to finish at about 4% down.

Gold has surprisingly tanked today as well - partially explained with a strong US$…it´s recovering now and is trading at 1880 or 2662 A$. The A$ has been weaker against the US as well - so the base metals ( down by 0,7-0,8% in US$ today ) as well as gold have hardly moved for Australian companies.

Election is also coming close in the US…

Metro Mining - completed an excellent Quarter early in Mid-September, because tehy could not sell their bauxite at reasonable prices - as reported earlier. All production metrics have been very good, though, generating EBITDA of 9,5 mill A$ in the Quarter. At the end of the Quarter, MMI had 45 Mill A$ in cash and 35 Mill$ in debt. Corporate costs have been slashed heavily, enabling the company to restart production without the need for further capital.

West African - excellent Quarterly out today. Production numbers had been announced before - +40% to 45.700 oz in the Quarter - but financials had not been known. AISC incl headoffice etc at 1009 US$ are excellent considered, that the underground mine has only just started to ramp up. The ramp-up, as reported, has been slower than anticipated, as it has been difficult to move exparts in and out - mainly due to Australian restrictions on travel. The company has generated 39 Mill A$ in operating activities during the Quarter, despite the above! Net debt has decreased by 20 mill US$ to 124 Mill US$ and as a priority, will be repaid at current gold prices by the 3rd Quarter next year at the latest. Company sees potential to pay dividends by teh end of next year!! As reported, deep drilling has also reported some excellent results, and the next resreve statement is due by the end of this Quarter, alongside a new Life-of-Mine plan for the next 10 years of production! WAF continue to be my largest holding in the gold space.

Dacian Gold - also reported an excellent Quarter of 32.800 oz at AISC of 1315 A$, aided by some underground production, which has been phased out in August. The hedged book totaly 61.000 oz and has ben restructured to maximise cash flow now - this Quarter, only 6.000oz will be delivered against hedges as opposed to 21.000 oz last Quarter. All hedges will be finished by the end of 2021. calendar year. Dacian have no net debt in the moment. Exploration has delivered some good results and I have little doubt, that Dacian will be able to extend mine life, which is the key to a higher valuation for the company. I continue to hold a reasonable position in DCN.

Have a nice evening

WS

General - Evolution

Good afternoon

equity markets continue to be very subdued because of escalating virus numbers. Some countries are more or less back to lockdown, while Australia is just about completely opening up again - except for people wanting to travel to Australia!

Durable Goods Orders in the States very strong…but no big change in surrencies. Base metals slightly up today, while gold continues to struggle to hold 1900 US$/oz.

Following yesterday´s slump in the share price, Chairman ( and very large shareholder ) Hasso Plattner bought another 250 mill Euro worth of stock - but that hardly helped the share price, which is only up by 1% or so.

Evolution - top Quarterly - some numbers had been pre-released already. 183 mill A$ in net mine cash flow, AISC of 1198 A$ ( remember, this includes Red Lake now, with AISC of 2074 A$ , which is distorting the figures and which will come down over the enxt few Quarters ) or 857 US$/oz, which is world calss vs leading miners. During the Quarter, net debt fell by 17 mill A$ to about 380 mill A$, despite paying 154 mill A$ in dividends. Once again, Ernest Henry shot out the lights with net mine cash flow of more than 80 mill A$, while Mungari had another record Quarter with 43 mill A$ net cash generation. Remarkable, how this operation has been turned around over the last 2-3 Quarters!!! Many strong drilling results from about all mine sites from brownfield exploration. March Quarter will see the first reserve statement for Red Lake, and also will see news as to which way Evolution will go to initially produce +200.000 oz at 1000 US$ from this asset, and some clues as to how tehy will reach their longer term target of 300-500.000 oz. Red Lake continues to surprise EVN´s management on the upside! The board has also approved a new, 25 mill$ decline for 2300m at Cowal, which will be used for future production, but for now, will enable the company to drill out the reserve. Overall, a strong Quarter for Evolution. Jake Klein emphasized once again, that Evolution wants to be all about margins and dividends to shareholders throughout the cycle, and not so much about growth. But he said, that they are constantly reviewing M&A - but only, if it can add value to the asset quality. Great company! Naturally, investors are comparing EVN with NST, the other large and relatively new, Australian producer. Here is the difference: NST had AISC of 1752 A$/oz vs EVN 1198 A$! And these numbers include a strong Quarter from Pogo ( for NST ), while the relatively recently aquired Red Lake ( as high cost producer so far ) will only see falling costs in the future, potentially further increasing the gap in costs! the margin per ounce produced is more than double for Evolution! This will reduce with the merger of Saracen, but should still leave EVN having a 250 A$/oz or so higher margin than the combined NST/SAR.

As you know, I am biased towards EVN vs NST - but tell me, where I am wrong?

Have a nice evening

WS