Good afternoon
UK going to splendid isolation via a not-so-splendid currency slide...on it´s way to new all-time lows against the Euro. Will that revive their manufacturing??? I tend to agree with what May had to say over the weekend...just about time, that the country diverts from it´s good old two-class system....let´s start with education!!!
I was really getting nervous for gold, as it looked like having broken not only through the 6-month upward trend at about 1310, but also through the 200-day average at about 1254.US$/oz ( same for the large gold miners ETF )....but then we had the US labor market figures in the States today, which got things moving. While being lower than expected, previous month got upgraded a little...underlying trnd is being interpreted as still strong, as the pool of available workers is shrinking....This was enough to trigger a rally in gold, back up through the 200-day and some...trading at 1258 US. mid-afternoon our time. I am not so sure, that we are in safe territority again...In the end, equities as well as bonds are not showing a clear direction since the numbers came out, same for the US$....
So - in a word - I am still not relaxed! We need a convincing move higher in gold, otherwise the risk will still be on the downside for the next few weeks. For now, I am not really sure, what the trigger could be...unless Mr.Trump becomes president, certainly!
But that´s "only" gold....the rest is looking better, still! Thermal coal moving to new , recent highs ( 10% up this week! ), iron ore holding up...lead + zinc looking very strong - copper above the lows - oil back up through 50$ - BHP/RIO/Anglo making new highs - this is still feeling very good! In history, rising interest rates tended to go along with rising metal prices - this time, it should be the same again! And while the entire compelx is looking so good, I am not seriously bearish for gold....
But over the near future, it might be more promising to pick up small stocks in the space ex gold...the zinc/lead developers I am following, have doen next to nothing as yet, as well as coal developers. Obviously, the market is not ripe for them as yet...but one day, these things will quickly catch up.
Not much to report in terms of micro-news over the last few days...so have a nice weekend!
And as I am going home, gold is gone....1243...next target is 1200, I fear!!
WS
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