Good afternoon
labor numbers in the States as expected; Industrial Production in Germany weaker than expected - but this is a volatile serious, and strong factory orders yesterday, as well as record high business confidence, assure further growth. GDP in Europe grew by 0,6% QoQ ....World PMI st at a very strong 55.2! This is no enviroment for weak commodity prices!!! I am pretty sure, that we are seeing the bottom now or very soon - and today base metal prices are a little stronger across the board, despite a stronger US$ ( but that correlation has completely changed recently, anyway! ). Cobalt, which is a different kind of animal, as it´s price is almost entirely influenced by the outlook for EV´s, is making a new high at 70.100 US$ or 31.80 US$/lb. Some analyst, I think from BMO, has forecast prices as high as 50$ next year for it.
Gold is not looking nice...economic times around the world are just too good, and even Trump´s glorious idea of accepting Jerusalem as the capitol of Israel doe snot help the gold price! In all sympathy with Israel - he is just a mad bugger and dangerous!
Iron is finally coming under pressure, from a high level, while coking coal is still running! At more than 230 US$/t, producers are making a killing!
Uranium market should be about balanced in 2018 for the first time in years, following some more mine closures early this week.
The Australian Stock Exchange will switch it´s settlement system to Blockchain!!
Finders - the indepedent experts report yesterday valued the stock between 31-and 35ct, which makes sense to me. Director are recommending to NOT accept the takeover bid at 23ct. Today the largest independant shareholder, Taurus Asst Mgt with 11% infoemd the board, that they are NOT planning to accept the 23ct-cash bid. Finders itself confirmed guidance for 2017 of being at the lower end of the expected range of 70-80 Mill US$ EBITDA - which is equivalent of 99 Mill A$ at the mid-point - and equivalent of less than 3x EV/EBITDA for FND´s 74% stake in the project. This would be a cheap takeover indeed at 23ct !!!
Gascoyne - the gold-developer, which recently raised some additional cash at 40ct ( I participated ), announced the long-awaited 60 Mill$ bank financing today. They have to hedge about 35% of production for 4 years - some will not like it, but at 1700 A$/oz and with AISC of about 1000 A$/oz, I think this is only prudent. Todays announcement removes uncertainty. The company will start producing around 100.000 oz for 6 years at this stage, in June 2018. The recent capital raising should see them agressivley explore immediately - the company is run by geologists, and they want to find more gold! The stock is close to fully valued with current reserves of their Dalgaranga project - exploration, and their second gold project you get for free - that´s a good deal, in my opinion. I also like the people running it.
Apollo Consolidated - that´s a story I visited first 15 month ago. Run by a serious guy, Nick Castleden, they have a good gold exploration project in Ivory Coast ( which has some metallurgical issues, at least at this stage ) and a very interesting project close to Kalgoorlie, from which they have repeatedly announced strong exploration results for gold as well. The stock ran away from me and touched 30ct during the first excitement, which was clearly overdone. But the company is well cashed up, and we will see more results pretty soon, I think. The recent correction back to 20ct have this stock made interesting again - the only thing holding me back in the moment is the risk, that gold will re-test 1200 US$/oz, depressing sentiment.
Most lithium stocks have seen a sizeable correction recently - from Galaxy to Pilbara and Kidman, stocks are down 15% or so from recent highs. Value is showing up as well here - for the foreseeable future, lithium-ion batteries are the only way to run cars and a lot of other things, and while there is a lot of it around, a lot of it will be needed as well! Especially PLS at 88ct looks like good value for me.
Have a nice evening!
WS
Schröder Equities GmbH
Seitzstr.7a
80538 München
Tel. +49-89-4613440-0
Fax +49-89-4613440-10
email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com
website: www.schroeder-equities.com
eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985
Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder
The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons