Good afternoon
For some time, retail sales in the States have been pretty lacklustre now. While confidence in current conditions has been very high, the outlook of consumers has deteriorated, expressing its elf in some more, slightly disappointing numbers today. CPI has been unchanged - both results in stronger bonds across the board today. The FED might be right in it´s cautious outlook for the economy, after all.
Equities are holding at very high levels today, while gold is profiting from the interest rate outlook and a weaker US$. The A$ - surprisingly - looks like breaking out from a long established trading range. No doubt, that US$ weakness across all currencies more recently is the main reason here - but commodity-currencies like the A$ and the Can$ have also been slightly stronger against the Euro. Probably, they are expressing a relatively nice rally we have seen over the last few eeks in metals and bulk commodities.
In the metals, this trend cointinued today - especially nickel and gold have been strong. Some profit taking ahs been evident in Steel Rebar and iron ore, albeit from very healthy levels. Macquarie estimates, that world Industrial Production growth this year so far is running at 3,2%, the strongest since 2014 - a strong indicator for metals demand. I have to say, that fundamentals for metals are looking good, metal prices also show this - but my portfolio certainly does not! Interest in commodity stocks is still very subdued.
the A$ gold price is reason for some concern. From a recent high of about 1730 in early June, the price has fallen to 1575 A$/oz today. Still a good price - but hardly inspiring buyers to do more!
J.P.Morgan´s Dimon is almost embarrassed to be American - I can understand him very well!
There has been very little micro-news of any interest today.
Have a nice weekend
WS
WS
Schröder Equities GmbH
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