Good afternoon
thank´s god Trump is getting on with his young mate Macron - at least somebody in Europe seems to have at least a little influence in Washington. Good to see, that Trump is also getting on with the "very honourable" Kim! My father once told me: Show me your friends and I tell you who you are....The most annoying thing is, that this way, Trump actually seems to get somewhere..
10-year bonds trading above 3% again...a mixture of good growth, rising inflationary expectations, and a 1 trill US$ budget deficit....Well 3% are not good for gold - but anything else should make you think of buying at least some gold for protection...If Trump´s bet does not come in, his legacy might be pretty nasty. At some stage, the market might not be happy to finance this? For now, a lot of investors are happy with 3% yield which is the best "risk-free" return in many years...As some commentators remarked today - the move in 2-year bonds from a low of 0,2% to 2.5% yield has been extraordinary and could / should scare a few people!
Metals are actually looking pretty ok today...at least considered a strong US$...Alu and nickel up slightly, copper down slightly, zinc down by 3% on a relatively large LME-stock increase.
Caterpillar with a stellar-Quarterly, and upgraded guidance - but also commenting: This is a good as it gets!- creating a lot of confusion...stock opens up strongly, only to close down sharply....( yesterday )
Google - result not that bad really, but investors in FAANG´s are pretty nervous these days. Looks like they are wasting some of their "hard"-earned income - well, this tends to happen, when you have 50 bill US$ in EBITDA this year!!!!! Investors put the FAANG`s all in one basket - but Google are trading at 12x EV/EBITDA ( I think Facebook as well, according to Bloomberg consensus ) Netflix at 70x....one is printing money, the other one is burning it....Interesting to watch for a small cap mining investor!
Roskill, commodity research house, expects the usage of nickel in batteries to go up 10x until 2027...and obviously, only nickel sulphate is of interest here, which is produced preferrably from nickel sulphides - only about 50% of world production and falling! The PAN´s of this world will have a lot of fun...definitely in a few years time!!!!
Freeport - the latest company to get screwed by a funny country! All the current noises from Indonesia re enviromental damage etc are going into one direction: Yes, we will buy it of you - but we will pay at best half price!!! Could actually be a medium term positive for copper...
Prairie Mining - I think a very important press release today: Firstly, a Polish court has decided, that nobody else than PDZ can get aby concessions over the Jan Karski mine for as long as the litigation is outstanding ( which could be 12 month or even longer ). Secondly, the provincial enviromental authority have officially promised to hand down their decision on enviromental approval before 30th of June ( as they should ). Both developments are very positive for PDZ - perhaps Poland is a real member of the EU, in the end, and not a third world country? The stock is up strongly today in all markets, where it´s listed - except for Australia, obviously. The last thing the government wants is to have the project in limbo for a long time, and at the same time, risking it´s image as an investment destination ( which is bad enough, anyway! ). I see real potential for everybody to get their act together - nice try, Poland - hopefully that was it!
Foran Mining - another set of good drilling results has been announced today. Zinc grades not fantastic this time, but excellent copper grades close to 3% over up to 11m, and also containing soime good gold gardes over 1g/t - silver up to 30g. Management comments, that recent drilling " could increase the size and grade of the resource ". In saying something like this in an announcement in 2018, you need to be pretty sure about it. The stock should have seen the end of the recent correction and has recovered 20% from the lows - bt is also still 20% below recent highs!
Australia has been closed today for ANZAC DAY .. Galipolis in ( I think ) 1917...
Have a nice evening
WS
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