Good afternoon
so it looks like China will import much more agricultural product from the States...keeping Mr.Trump happy... Hi Australlan vasalls will love to hear that! Got to be bad for Australian meat exporters especially.
Metals come back a little now, having started the day very strong and giving in to some profit-taking now. But copper still up more than 1.4%, nickel by o,6%. Quite incredible! The weaker US$ is helping a bit - the Euro is getting stronger, as the market is expecting a more definite end to the ECB´s bond buying. Having said this - German Factory Orders were pretty weak today, and actually down a fraction on a year ago! European exports also weaker. Germany´s economy is holding about because of consumption and building/construction - but I am surprised, how well consumer confidence has been coping with all the political schlamassel!
Macquarie has turned much more positive on nickel! From being cautious in the short term, they are now expecting prices of 17-18.000 US$/t ( ! versus 15.700 today ) by year end - mainly based on strong stainless steel production, and enviromental crack-down on some NPI production in China! Also, respected broker Euroz with a strong update-report on Panoramic. They only expect re-start announcement in the 3rd Quarter 2018. I guess that´s anybodies guess - might well be, in any case, it won´t be long!
Mineral Resources - sorry,a gain! As you know, MIN ahve made a takeover-bid for Atlas Iron, an existing iron ore producer. The main attraction of them is a substantial allocation of port capacity at Port Hedland. For me, this bid made a lot of sense strategically, even though it increased iron ore leverage of MIN. Today, Fortescue have bought a blocking stake of 20$ in Atlas Iron, at a relative hefty price of 4ct. Their bid can only have two reasons: Prevent new competition increasing it´s market share, and blocking access / increasing their own access to valuable port capacity. Nobody believes, that MIN will be drawn into a bidding war here - hence, the stock was up today. As I said - strategically I liked MINs move - but for now, lithium and the pending sale of a stake in Wodgina are of dramatically more relevance!
Metro Mining - have suffered a few small delays to bring their brand-new bauxite mine into production , but have landed ( and received payment ) for the first cargoes into China. They have also secured the first spot-sale, which took a little time as well. Cash is always tight in the early days of a new mine - so the question is, whether these guys might need a little bit extra! The share price is down by a few ct, showing these concerns. Whatever happens with short term cash - this is a good story, with a cash-printing mine, once in full production. I would wait a little, to be on the safe side - but in the medium term, 21ct will prove to be a bargain for this stock.
Have a nice evening
WS
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