Good afternoon
LAST REMINDER - AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES CONFERENCE , Zurich, Hotel Baur au Lac this Friday, at 8.55 pm!
news from China are getting worse every day…airlines getting bailed out amid 20% of usual passenger numbers, businesses getting supported because of not having enough liquidity to pay their workers etc etc…Adidas sales in China slump 85% since 25th of January. Yet the market is banking on the Chinese government to increase stimulus, to catch up lost ground from the 2nd Quarter. Hard to come to a strong opinion in this situation, which is unprecentended.
But one thing is for sure - I am very surprised about markets complacency…not only go they sideways - they are continuing to gain strength!
And strangely enough - the US$ is trong, equities are strong, and gold is strong - while bonds and base metals are doing very little….Gold making a new, recent high + A$ making a new, recent low = A$ gold at fresh record high of 2407 A$/oz currently!
Palladium and Platinum going through the roof….Gold stocks in the US with strong momentum and they feel like breaking out…
And TESLA continues to go crazy - up 80$ to 940 US$ currently, as unconfirmed reports about fantastic orders for the Cybertruck hit the shorts! Tesla will have 30% of Daimler´s estimated revenue and EBITDA for 2022, but is trading at more than 3x it´s market cap!
Fortescue - good result out today - if anything, a touch above expectations. The dividend, while being a fantastic 0,76A$ fully franked, fell a bit short of eskalated expectations. Mr. Forrest does own 30% of this company - but that does not mean “paying div at any price”! Well he is receiving a nice cheque over nearly 700 mill A$ ( good on him ! ) - so I think he would not bother! Joke aside - the company commented on the div-payment,. that they wanted to be a bit cautious in light of the uncertain virus-situation. They emphasized, that they have not experienced as yet and problems to ship or sell iron ore to China! Well I have no doubt, that this will change- and be it only temporarely…As I mentioned above - the market is uncertain
Have a nice evening,a nd see many of you on Friday!
WS