Good afternoon
A little bit of advertising for my own fund today, the Nestor Australien Fund.
Top 10 positions:
Genex Power - upside at least 100% on 12-month view - energy producer
Metro Mining - upside at least 100% on 12 month view - bauxite producer
West African Resources - upside at least 100% on 12 month view - gold producer
Tassal Group - upside at least 30% on 12 month view - Australia´s largest producer of salmon
Strike Energy - upside at least 100% on 12 month view - gas developer
Macquarie Group - upside at least 30% on 12 month view - the world´s best investment bank
Panoramic Resources - upside at least 100% on 12 month view - nickel producer
Marley Spoon - upside at least 50% on 12 month view - home delivery of food/ready-made meals
Foran Mining - upside at least 100% on 12 month view - copper/zinc developer
The weighting of above stocks in the portfolio is 35,7% - the largest at the top of the list with 5,5% - the lowest at the bottom of the list with 3,2% weighting. The fund concentration is limited by Luxemburg rules, which means, that the top 8 positions are not allowed to comprise more than 40% of the fund.
The fund is also holding numerous other stocks you will know - Evolution/Sheffield/Tietto/Oklo/Nine Entertainment/Alliance Aviation/Macmahon/Perenti/Origin/Graphex/Bellevue/Fleetwood/IVE Group,Beach Petroleum to name a few of the larger holdings - usually above 2% weighting.
The fund is down by about 36% this year as at today, representing a fall of about 12% in the currency, the rest in stocks. In my opinion, the above holdings have the potential to add 100% in value on a 12 month view, assuming, that the virus story will be largely behind us in June/July of this year. The Wertpapierkennummer is 570769, the ISIN is LU0147784119. It´s a typical, Luxemburg-based fund as thousands of other funds, tradeable on a daily basis.
Bloomberg reports, that the SPDR Gold Trust saw 2.9 Bill US$ in flow last week alone - that´s about 56t of gold at 1600 US$/oz! That´s the largest physical gold fund…Blackrocks Ishares saw about 6t equivalent inflow on Monday alone…these numbers are incredibly large…and make it of little relevance, that Russia stopped buying gold ( total purchases of central banks last year about 50t p.m.)- and should make up for more than the lost demand from jewellery ( which is about 190t p.m. in total ). If inflows like this persist, it will be replacing the entire jewellery- and central bank demand! That probably won´t happen - but just to show you, how big demand has been very recently. Obviously, there are more, smaller ETF´s around - and certainly, there is also large physical demand for coins & bars as well! The risk is, that central banks will not only stop buying, but start selling…but I think this might be highly unlikely, in light of zero interest rates around the world, and the ever reducing value of all currencies except for gold!
The Americans and Trump especially discover, that corona or in American language , “the Chinese virus” is a bad thing…oh my god…and his approval ratings are rising. What a country! Anybody surprised about the first economic numbers coming out recently, from corona-affected times, got to be stupid! And anybody expecting banking stocks ore any companies, which get support from governments, cutting dividends to zero, as well! It would be scandalous, if companies get government aide on one side, and continue to pay shareholders a dividend on the other!
Stocks are weaker today so far, but too badly so. Base metals have been hit a bit - copper down 3% as I am going home, the rest more like 1,5%. Gold is holding it´s level at around 1590 US$, and you would not believe it - the GDXJ is currently up by 4%!
Not that much to report today!
Have a nice evening
WS