Good afternoon
Madame Lagarde statet today, that the ECB wants to step up it´s bond purchases - putting a lid for now on interest rates in Europe. Bond markets are strong today in Europe, but slightly weaker in the US.
Slightly better tha expected unemployment numbers in the US
Tech´s are building on their recent gains - strong again today. It takes more than a few interest rate fears to finish a 14 year bull market , which has made most people sooo much money! But I remain cautious…in my fund, I have minimal exposure here.
Base metals are having a very strong day today - copper is back up through 9000 US$/t ( strike at Antofagasta ? )…and iron ore has recovered as well. Gold, though, is down by a few $ - I am a bit worried about the relentless selling of the various gold ETF´s - since the 4th of Feb, their holdings of gold have fallen every bloody single day!
Oil is approaching 70 US$ again on signs of improving demand. Despite a good run recently, major oil stocks like BP or Royal Dutch are still trading at very subdued levels… I think there is still very good value in these things!
As one fundmanager pointed out to me: No government in this world ( and many companies as well ) can afford strongly rising interest rates. IF we get some infaltion on a sustained basis - that will be the time when gold should move strongly: Inflation and no chance to increase rates will be a potent cocktail for very strong gold prices! I think he is very right - but we are certainly not at this point yet, as shown by the - still - very subdued CPI in the States the other day.
Newmont moved on little know GT Gold yesterday, and Newcrest also did a corporate transaction in Canada - I guess there is still more to come on M&A!
Have a nice evening
WS