Market Update

General - Independence - Tietto - Strike/Warrego

Good afternoon

Finally, the massive EU stimulus program has been put into motion last night…and the ECB will buy another 500 Bill Euro´s in bonds…unbelievable..massive…

CPI in Germany at -0,3% YoY - unchanged. Death rate as well as new infections in Germany at a new high - hard lockdown will definitely come, the only question is when - before or just after Christmas. But in any case it looks like busineses will continue - except certainly for entertainement, hospitality, and I guess sporting events, but including schools - but it´s holiday time anyway, soon!

Business Confidence in the States is higher than expected - looks like these guys over there are unfazed by 250.000 new infections every day!

Iron ore is trading at 160 US$/t for 62§% material! Unbelievable - and the first cyclone in the Pilbara is around the corner, reducing Australian supply! BHP/RIO/FMG are making new highs almost on a daily basis - and second liners are also racing. I might sell a few Fortesuce tonight - this is getting a bit hot for me…and making nearly 35% in a month in a large cap is tempting me into some profit-taking.

In light of really bad corona numbers, European equities very pretty weak initially, but recovered, once US markets were only seeing small losses. Disney very strong on a very bullish outlook for it´s streaming business, and it´s market cap increases by a shabby 45 bill US$!. Airbnb continues with it´s unbelievable rise!

Base metals saw some profit taking today, but receovered also from the worst - but surprisingly, nickel held on to it´s very strong gains from yesterday! I just cannot believe, that Panoramic does not move!!!!!!! I am absolutely loaded now in this stock!

Gold is up a few $ - I guess some people are understandably worried about this massive money printing exercise in Europe! This year, gold has performed exactly in line with gold stocks as measured by the GDXJ…that´s certainly a big surprise! Usually, a 20% rise should be followed by a 40% rise in stocks - or even more!

Independence - raised 750 mill A$ or so at a 9,5% discount ( 4,60 A$ ) - only to close at a massive 6,32 A$!!! 50% profit for investors, which took the placement! They are buying indirectly 49% of the Kwninana lithium smelter, and 25% of the fabulous Greenbushes Mine for 1.9 bill $…massive price, but obviously the market likes this blue chip asset and the outlook for EV´s !

Tietto - got the mining license for their 3 mill oz resource in Ivory Coast. The market does not really believe in this asset, and I also believe, that tehy killed the market in their stock with the massive, oversized placement of 60 mill$ a few month ago. Nevertheless - my contacts in Australia are believers in Tietto, and that they have a nice, mineable resource. We will probably only find out ( at least to some degree ) once they publish the PFS some time in the next Quarter. TIE continue to very actively drill, with 4 rigs working on double shift.

Strike/Warrego - long term followers and - holders of Strike will get pretty excited - next week, the West Erregulla well should reach target depth! The aim is to prove up another 0,5TCF of gas, additional to the existing 1.2 trill TCF. This would validate the first resource estimate as well, and indicate very substantial long term interest in further success in the Perth basin - including great potential for LNG and the devlopment of new industries in Western Australia!. Analysts see targets of 50% higher from here initially for Strike, and 100% for Warrego.

have a nice weekend!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by

General - Foran - Poseidon - Oz Minerals - Fortescue - Atrum Coal

Good afternoon

equity markets are not doing much - metals are stronger, again. Especially nickel - up by 2,2%, and zinc +1,6%. Copper with a new high. Gold is under pressure - $ is stronger, and stimulus package in the US is yet hitting another road block!

Oil was stronger, but is now slightly down amid an unexpected increase of stocks.

Iron ore is trading at 148$, and the discount for 58% material is continuing to tighten! All good for the large producers, but especially for Fortescue!

China car sales last month up by 7.8% YoY…electrical vehicles sales are booming and doubled to 169.000 cars. EV- and hybrid sales in Germany ub by 522% last month YoY! As we can see in investor- as well as corporate interest in lithium - this market is on a roll!

Foran Mining - released the first resource estimate for Bigstone the other day, which is close to their existing resource. 2 millt at 2,22% copper eq are seen by the company as a starting resource. The company is planning for more resource drilling in early 2021.

Poseidon Nickel - has started with the drill drive, which should be completed by Feb 2021 and will make underground drilling more efficient, faster and cheaper.

Fortescue - has put first ore through the plant of their new iron ore mine Eliwana, which will produce 30mt p.a. and has been constructed on time and within budget. The company has had an Investor Day yesterday in Australia, commenting very positively on ongoing demand from China , a potential decrease of port stock piles in China to below 2016-lows. The company is wondering, whether Brazil might have ongoing problems in ramping up production in 2021.

Genex - has started to produce from their second wind farm, Jemalong, which has been constructed as planned. Currently, they are delivering into the spot market, but the market is expecting some sort of off-take agreement with electricity companies. This is tehs eond, large solar power project tehy have brought into production as planned. Broker Euroz believe, that the company is only valued currently on the two solar projects, with no value ascribed to the pumped hydro project at all!

Oz Minerals - after completing teh takeover, tehy announced an updated PFS for their West Musgrave project in Australia. Final investment decision for this mine, which will produce 32.000 t of copepr and 26.000t of nickel, is expected for 2022. By the time it´s in full production in 2026, it will contribute substantially to profits of OZL.

Atrum Coal - have released an updated scoping study for their high quality coking coal project in the US. It´s only 30km from a major coal mine of Teck, and is neighbouring Gina Rhinehardt´s project, which seems to be smaller, but was still taken over at a substantial premium. The next positive trigger for Atrum should be the issue of a mining license to that company, which should re-rerate Atrum as well. The revised scoping study assigns an NPV9 of about 1.4 bill $ to the project . I think there is a high chance, that either Gina Rhinehardt, of Teck could buy this company, before it´s developed. But I guess a mining lease would be needed for the corporate teams to go ahead! This is a high risk / high return company for speculative investors. The quality of the asset, as well as the coal quality are excellent - but these days, it´s hard to find institutional buyers for coal - even though this is coking coal for teh steel industry, and not thermal coal for power stations! I am holding a small position in ATU in my fund.

Have a nice evening

For everybody who might want to visit: We are in the middle of packing up, and by the new year, you will find our office at Pilotystr.4 in Munich, just around the corner of our current office.

Ws

General - The Bull is Loose! - Strike/Warrego - BHP - OZ Minerals

Good afternoon

and the melt-up continues…!

Equities are stronger again today - metals as well - copper 1% , nickel 2,2% - …the US$ still falling initially, but then stabilizing…so an unchanged picture on Friday from the rest of this week! All these base metal stocks with new highs…Oz MInerals, Lundin, Antofafagasta, First Quantum, Freeport, Hudbay etc etc

Palladium is taking a breather today, but platinum is marching ahead!

Markets are becoming very bullish iron ore for the next year…unless China falls off a cliff! Macquarie sees a shortage of 50 millt ,possibly, next year…FMG/RIO/BHP remain good buying, despite record highs! Kumba, the large South African producer, has cut output guidance also by 1-2 millt for 2021 as well as 2022.

Oil is marching higher as well - 50$ for Brent is coming into sight!

Strike Energy - reports about drill progress today. The well is going the way it should now - all the right ingredients are there for West Erregulla potentially incerasing by anothr 0,5 Tcf….But as always, the prove is in the pudding - the next 3 weeks could be very exciting for holders of Warrego and Strike. The latetr is trading very close to it´s highs, while WGO for whatever reason has problems moving away from it´s placement price of 21ct, and has been very much left behind. Strike have 50% upside potential and WGO 100%…both feel strong!

BHP is at all time highs and probably will need to do some work to go through the 42$-level. But god knows - markets are explosive, and so is iron ore!

OZ Minerals - have completed the ramp-up of their Carapateena project 6 month ahead of schedule…OZL is making a new high today. Australia´s best copper producer!

For my taste, it´s almost becoming too bullish! Some consolidation is needed? But then it seems, that the world is underweight resources! Except for gold - who has been talking about resources stocks recently??

Have a nice weekend

WS

General - Perseus - West African - Iron Ore - Foran

Good afternoon

sorry I deleted yesterday´s report, when I wanted to post it…after that, I could not be bothered!!

Just two quick points from yesterday:

Perseus - have treated the first batch of ore at Yaoure - the ball mills are turning! Let´s hope, that the comissioning phase will continue as smooth as the beginning! So far, all looks good. Theproejct was completed within it´s so called stretch-target - to produce first gold in December 2020. I think this is a remarkable achievement at a time, when COVID made everything difficult! Back in March/April, I would have bet quite a bit of money on this porject being delayed by a couple of month! Well done and congrats!!

West African - announced some more very high grade hits around 20g gold with good length from their current underground drilling at a depth of 850 m - extending the current resource by another 500m down dip! This is excellent news! Two more holes in progress - tehy need to be finsihed, before a new ( inferred ) resource can be estimated, which will only be in January. My guess is, that the LOM-plan, which was originally expected for December, might take until late Jan/early Feb 2021. Every drill hole down to this depth does cost approx 500.000$ - so further drilling to establish a higehr confidence class of resources will be done over time from underground, which will be a lot cheaper. The strong consistency of the underground ore body should be good enough, even with only inferred resources, to get the LOM-plan done! WAF look like almost certain to produce 200.000oz over 10 ýears or mroe now - and that´s before Togea comes into play, with 1,1 mill oz in resources, at betetr grades than the current open pits. Drilling of Togea to increase confidence, extend the resource and enable a feasibility study, will start next week. Can´t believe, just how cheap WAF are under 1$ - despite the location in Burkina Faso.

Today:

The US$ gas clearly fallen through a strong support level, and could now extend losses by another 3% or so - that´s the target on the charts - some analysts expect another 10-15% over next year, which might be possible! That´s not good for our miners in Australia, as the A$ seems to be well on it´s way to 80ct against the US, from the current 74,50. That means more downside from the currency - but the way base metals are behaving, their price performance is easily making up for the strength of the currency.

Today, base metals are struggling a little higher, following a weaker start this morning. Gold is stronger and tzrading at around 1837 US$/oz currently, equivalent to 2466 A$/oz. That´s up from a recent low at 2400 - but I am not sure about the A$ gold price. Further gains could be very limited here because of the strengthening currency. While there are many reasons to continue to buy/hold gold, I think Macquarie is right to expect a strongly steepening yield curve next year, which would have some negative implications for gold. Heavy outflows of Gold ETF´s are continuing, and the performance of the GDXJ in North America does not inspire a lot of enthusiasm for gold in the short term!

The big news today is the disappointing production forecast from Vale, cutting it´s guidance by about 10-20 millt this year as well as next! The iron ore price reacted with a new 7-year high at about 139 US$/t, and this has put a rocket under Fortescue as well as RIO and BHP´s share prices. Mr.Wong, the legendary investor in Fortescue, made another 200x his investment back in 2003 ( he invested 1,2 mill $ and kept all his 93 mill shares ever since!!! )

Foran Mining - canadian broker Paradigm isued a research report today, with a first target of 1,10 Can$/share and a NPV of 1,98 Can$/share. They see furtehr upside to it, if FOM can deliver on exploration, which seems highly probably given they have had some promising intersections outside of the current resource already. Paradigm is making a few assumptions to arrive at their valuations - but I think those are very reasonable. They are using a copper price longterm of 3,08 US$/lb - today we are at 3,50 US$, and Goldman´s see a retest of 4,50 US$/lb on the cards!!

Evolution - talking about copper…EVN are producing about 22.000t p.a. of copper as by-product. This could add additional 20 mill$ in profits p.a. vs the last Quarter, annualized, and is a very nice little extra for them!

Have a nice evening!

WS

General - Strike/Warrego - Chalice - Liontown - Poseidon

Good afternoon

PMI´s in Asia, as well as in Germany are pointing to a strong recovery in manufacuring…Factor activity in the States still very strong and expansionary, but a touch below expectations. Equity markets like that - they are making new highs, as well as base metals. Aluminium, copper , nickel and zinc are strong today…and gold is staging a nice recovery: Currently up by 37$ to 1814 US$ and back above the 200-day moving average. A lower US$, which is testing the 1.20-level against the Euro again, is helping here. This level is strong resistance - but I think it could fall, with the next target being 1,25 US$/Euro. As I am writing, the US$ has moved to 1,205 against teh Euro and has broken support!

Platinum ( first close above 1000 US$ in a while ) and palladium are also moving very strongly! Platinum has strong resistance around 1000-1030 US$ - if it can move through it, the 2016-high of 1200 will be the next stop.

Tensions between Australia and China are rising, still - rethoric is not good at all! I think Mr.Morrison, the Australian PM, thinks that he is a strong man! All he is, in my opinion, is a strong follower of the US!! Unfortunately, Australia is so paranoid about it´s Asian neighbours, that it´s politicians tend to follow the US blind in their ( perceived ) need of a big brother as ally!

These tensions also show themselves in share prices of the large iron ore producers, which are all way too low foo low, considered that iron ore is trading at record prices and is generating stellar returns for the Australians! Some little companies like for example Sheffield could turn out to be big loosers from politics here, waiting for Foreign Investment Review Board approval.

My fund Nestor Australien has profitet greatly from the recent run of the resources sector - but also from strongly performing industrial stocks in Australia. The fund is up by about 25% this year, and has returned 10.2% p.a. over the last 5 years in Euro-terms, or about 13% p.a. in A$-terms ( that´s after all management fees incl performance fees ). Unfortunately, our marketing is terrible, so it remains small, with just over 11 mill Euro under management. I would love to have 20-30 Mill , which would be an ideal size to also give small- and micro-caps a good weighting!

Strike Energy/ Warrego - had their AGM today and appeared very confident of the success of the currently drilled West Erregulla-well, which is drilling ahead at 3500m depth. This is getting very close to the target, which should be reached within the next week! Strike´s share price is holding well close to record highs. I have bought a position in Warrego recently, who hold 50% of the current well. While not being the operator, and not having the great ground position Strike has in the Perth Basin, I think Warrego are way too cheap vs Strike and have the chance to double over the next few month, if this well comes in as planned.

Chalice - absolutely unbelievable just a few month ago, the company raised 100 mill A$ at 3,75 A$ to continue it´s drilling success!! 80 Mill A$ are earmarked for Julimar, and 20 mill A$ for it´s other properties. Aim is to establish a resource for Julimar by the middle of next year!! This is shaping up to be a worldclass discovery just outside of Perth! My aim is to double or tripple my money in exploration stocks, so I have exited my very profitable position in Chalice - perhaps a bit prematurely. I have a relative sizeable position in

Liontown, where I am profiting from their excellent lithium project ( which for me, is screeming for corporate activity ). I think the management is working very hard on bringing this project to fruition by driving the feasibility study - probably not only producing lithium spodumene, but also lithium hydroxide. The pre-feasibility study calls for mining of 2 milltpa, a 40 year mine life, and 4,8 bill A$ free cash flow - using operating costs over the mine life of 377 US$/dmt and a price recived for spodumene of 739 US$/dmt. These parameters are looking realistic tome, and arrive at a NPV of 1,12 bill A$ for LTR - vs the current market cap of 487 Mill A$. Going further doiwnstream ( and using cheap, Western Australian gas! ) could increase the NPV to nearly 5 bill A$, according to a recent scoping study! I would not be surprised, if some large consumer of lithium like a car- or battery producer, would end up as a JV partner here.

Liontowns second project is of great, speculative interest to me, and looking at above potential, is probably coming for free: Moora is a property about 120 km North of Chalice´Julimar project. Aquired by LTR in 2018 and 2019 ( before the Julimar success ) , it has many look-a-likes to Julimar, including sueface gechemistry, which has recorded strongly anomalous values for nickel, copper and PGE´s - again similar to Julimar. LTR have recently raised funds and are well cashed up to drive exploration at Moora as well as the feasibility studies for Kathleen Valley, the lithium project. If Tim Goyder´s recent success rate ( he is Chairman of LTR as well as CHN ) can be applied, both projects will deliver! Follow the winners…!

Poseidon Nickel - Peter Harold´s new company had their AGM the other day, and raised attention today, because Andrew Forrest reduced his holding in the company from 18…to 16,4%. I had a good look at the company, and a good chat to him. While I believe, that Panoramic ( market cap 276 Mill A$ ) is still quite a bit cheaper than POS ( market cap 174 Mill A$ ), I think a nice situation could develope in POS. They have had three excellent drill hoels with long intersections of nickel, around 10% of nickel ( ! ), and are currently developing a drill dive ( 300m ) , from which to explore this anomaly further. Western Australian nickel history has shown in multiple situations, that there is normally a very high chance of different mineralised areas, once you have fund. This project has historically delivered some nice and profitable nickel production, and chances look high to me, that POS have discovered one this year. The gardes are outstanding, infrastructure is in place, and the discovery is just a few hundred meters from existing and fully functional underground development. This discovery, if further hoels prove a resource ( which looks highly likely to me ) could be brought into production very quickly, and with limited capex. POS have 15 mill cash in the bank , of which 3 mill will be used for the drill dive, and about 1 mill per month for exploration - so definitely no capital raising within the enxt 6 month, and even thereafter, probably only, if tehy have success! POS could also monetise their gold tailings resource, for which a feasibiliyt study has been done. That could be sold for I guess 10-15 mill A$, or processed by POS . The NPV at current A$ gold price is about 23 mill A$.

I think there is a good chance, that the share price might come back a little on the Forrest-news - certainly also depending on whether he will continue to sell. I also believe, that Panoramic is outstandingly cheap vs all these high-flying nickel exploreres, especially, as PAN also have very substantial exploration potential. But a fact is, that the market is paying for explorers these days, and especially those, which make high grade discoveries. I am waiting for a buying opportunity in Poseidon…in the meantime, veery worthw hile to have them on the watch list!!!

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by